The Six Nations so far: will Wales win it?

So, another Six Nations begun, another intriguing contest set up nicely in the balance. The first weekend was largely uninspiring and utterly predictable. Sure, the Wales/Ireland match was reasonably enthralling, and the manner of Wales’ victory was unexpected, but the other results were grimly predictable.

Scotland played well, failed to score a try and were beaten by a grittier and more stubborn England team. France outplayed a plucky Italy, who are getting pluckier all the time, but not really quickly enough, I’m afraid.

To be honest, Wales have played in the two most interesting matches so far (I was particularly disappointed by the France/Ireland encounter…) and are showing an alarming amount of strength and power. Even with a second choice hooker, second choice prop, fourth and fifth choice second rows and second and third choice flankers, they still look by far the team most likely to clinch the title.

Leigh Halfpenny has had a major impact on Wales' two games (Photo: walesonline.co.uk)

Their back-line has me waking up in cold sweats every night as I dream try-saving tackles on the monsters that are George North, Alex Cuthbert and Jamie Roberts (invariably coming off worse in the process, somehow even pulling muscles while lying peacefully in bed, asleep) or while trying to catch the impish Leigh Halfpenny.

Their forwards, even depleted as I have described them, are still more than a match for any of their competition, as they proved this weekend in tiring the Scots out to such an extent that they were forced into illegal tackles which led to sin-bins and their defeat.

I stand by what I said about Ireland, who looked old indeed against the young leeks, and who I think will struggle against every other team. If Scotland score some tries, and Italy score a drug that somehow gives them self-belief, I can see Ireland failing to pick up a single victory this year. You can’t pick a number 6 at every position and expect that to win you the game. Modern rugby has moved on.

I don’t feel England or France have really had the chance to prove themselves yet. England have played two matches with an average temperature comparable to that found on Svalbard in winter against two teams well set up to spoil the opposition without challenging them and I believe that against better opposition, with some of their top players back, they could still do well. However, I worry about what North and co might do to them, so I’m not holding my breath.

As for France, one grimy win against a grizzled Italy is nothing to go on, but I reckon they have the right mix of experience and composure to fight their way to the top.

So I am going to have to revise my opinions of how the final table will look. I underestimated the remarkable strength in depth Wales have, and now reckon they will come second, just being pipped by France. England will beat Ireland and grind into third, a success all things considered. As for the other three, I suspect they may all get one win each, and share the spoils.

I am glad to see I have done rather better in predicting which players will have an impact. The young guns in the English and Scottish teams have proved themselves to be test level and Wesley Fofana popped up with a try first time out.

Once again, I would like to remark on the impressiveness of the Welsh. Every player their coach, Warren Gatland, bloods looks like a Lion already. I won’t be surprised if they win, but I’m going to stick with France. Just.