The Six Nations 2012: coaches, kids and back-rowers

Saint Sport already has one Six Nations preview, by Ben Reiss, who knows infinitely more about rugby than I do. But I thought I’d do one as well.

I’ll try and avoid predictions where I can, because 1) the Sport Editor is infallible so must not be wrong; and 2) my forecasts usually end up being less right than Alan Hansen’s infamous declaration, “you’ll win nothing with kids”.

Instead, I’ll try to eke out some of the common factors and trends going into this year’s championship. There are three new coaches, we’ll see a battle of the back rows and we’ll also witness the success/failure of teams replacing established stars with fresh talent. This is one of the more open Six Nations in years (although I’m pretty sure that gets said before every tournament) and so it is not altogether out of the question that England could retain their title with kids. What’s that, Alan? Oh, never mind.

Warren Gatland (Wales), Declan Kidney (Ireland) and Andy Robinson (Scotland) remain head coaches of their teams. Celtic continuity, then. To the south, however, it’s all change. England’s RFU looked to forget the World Cup in New Zealand had ever happened by firing anyone and everyone, including the beleaguered head coach Martin Johnson. In his place, at least on an interim basis, we have Stuart Lancaster. I must confess that he is something of an unknown to me, but then again I don’t think I’m alone in saying that. What he has already done is cleaned up England’s image, which is perhaps just as important as working on their on-pitch performance. Assistant coaches Graham Rowntree and Andy Farrell survived the RFU cuts to lend Lancaster a hand. What we will have to wait to see is whether Lancaster’s fresh direction and a sprinkling of familiar faces combined with a downpour of new ones brings results.

Will Scotland's new faces get them across the (try) line? www.theedinburghblog.co.uk

Philippe Saint-Andre is another quite young head coach; he succeeded Marc Lievremont (or possibly Inspector Clouseau – it was quite hard to work out which at the World Cup). Saint-Andre has had success at club level with Gloucester, Sale and Toulon, taking the latter to the 2010 Amlin Challenge Cup final. If he can inspire togetherness and consistency from a fabulously-talented French squad (rather than Lievremont’s squabbles and confusion), it would take something special to stop Les Bleus winning another Six Nations title.

Finally, Italy have given Nick Mallett the heave-ho and replaced him with Frenchman Jacques Brunel, who spent six years in the French national setup under Bernard Laporte. The attraction for Italy, presumably, is that he coached the French forwards and forward play is what the Italians do best (some might say it’s all they do). Despite usually placing last under Mallett, Italy were making substantial progress and Brunel will have some task to follow that up. Rumours that Brunel has been covertly placed in the Italian hotseat by the FFR to prevent any more embarrassing losses are unconfirmed.

So much for the head coaches. What about playing positions? You can forget your speedy wingers and Mickey-Mouse kickers, international rugby right now is all about the back-row forwards. The IRB Player of the Year is French flanker and captain Thierry Dusautoir; if he plays well, his teammates follow. Other top-notch back row players include Sam Warburton (Wales), Sergio Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco (both Italy), while Harlequins flanker Chris Robshaw has been named England captain.

But for me – and this may come from my Ulster/Ireland bias – the best back-row has to be Ireland’s. Stephen Ferris is Ulster’s best player by several miles and has been tearing teams apart in this year’s Rabo-12-Pro-thingymajig, as has Leinster’s Sean O’Brien. Add to them Jamie Heaslip and you have a wonderful back row. If they stay fit and get themselves all over the pitch carrying ball and destroying their opposition, Ireland have a shout.

Ferris, O’Brien and Heaslip will need to be on good form, because Ireland are missing centre-cum-superhero Brian O’Driscoll. Irish fans will hope Keith Earls or Fergus McFadden can do a decent shift in that position as – much as I hate to say it – Paddy Wallace simply does not match up.

The absence of O’Driscoll is a case in point; this will be a fairly open championship due to the changes seen in many of the squads. Scotland have lost Chris Paterson, Wales Shane Williams and most of England’s 2011 Six Nations/World Cup squad was last seen in some bar in Auckland. This year for England, no Wilkinson, Tindall, Thompson, etc – the man in the squad with the most caps is Toby Flood (with 46) and at age 26 he is something of a veteran. They have potential stars of the future like Robshaw and centres Brad Barritt and Owen Farrell, plus some established talents such as Chris Ashton (as prolific as he is arrogant), Ben Foden and Tom Croft. How Lancaster welds old and new together will decide how well they do in the tournament, not least in their opening game – far more established names have wilted at Murrayfield.

Scotland and Wales also have new potential coming through. Welshmen Jonathan Davies, Toby Faletau and George North have already made names for themselves, and more youngsters are on their way. Scotland have Ross Rennie, David Denton and Lee Jones to add freshness and a touch of star quality, while – having witnessed Edinburgh’s Heineken Cup win over Harlequins last month – Greig Laidlaw looks not a bad shout to step into Paterson’s kicking boots.

Ireland retain the core of their traditional team, while France keep the best of a side that outplayed the All Blacks for large parts of the World Cup final. If this Six Nations proves experience to win over youthful vigour, then the French will surely be smiling come its end.

So, there you have it. I think the way this tournament plays out will largely depend on three factors: which head coach (old or new) gets their selections, tactics and team spirit right; which back row proves strongest; and which new players make an impact against their seasoned opponents. It’s sure to be an exciting few weeks, one I and countless others are relishing… as long as the scrums don’t take ten minutes each to sort themselves out.